Japan’s 2024 General Election Results 

Election Results

LDP’s Election Losses

The LDP and Komeito coalition failed to secure a simple majority. The LDP lost 56 seats, bringing its total to 191 seats, marking the second-lowest number of seats it has held since its founding in 1955. Komeito, which held 32 seats, now holds 24 seats. Without a clear majority, the ruling party will likely struggle to pass legislation and would need to build coalitions or negotiate with other parties to maintain control in the Diet, let alone revising the constitution, which requires a two-thirds majority. This further reduces the LDP’s authority over the coalition and makes the policy-making process more fragmented and challenging.

This loss reflects widespread voter dissatisfaction, driven largely by scandals and economic concerns. The failure to secure this majority mirrors a similar situation the party faced in the 2009 election, when the LDP briefly lost power due to public dissatisfaction with its leadership, the global financial crisis, internal scandals, and the rise of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan which dissolved in 2016.

Scandals and Internal Challenges

The slush fund scandal in which the LDP members failed to declare political donations, including unreported income from party ticket sales, contributed significantly to voter distrust and disillusionment with the party. Further damaging the party’s reputation was the controversy over the JPY 20 million (USD 130,000) payments, during the pre-election period, to party branches headed by candidates who were not officially endorsed by the LDP but were involved in the party’s slush fund scandal. These scandals compounded the poor electoral performances of the LDP and, notably, the five key members of the former Abe faction. Their failure to retain strong support in this election reflects a broader shift away from the LDP’s old guard, highlighting internal struggles and the public’s growing demand for transparency and accountability in politics.

Record Number of Women Elected to Office

A record 73 women were elected to the House of Representatives, an increase of 28 compared to the 45 women elected in 2021. Women now make up 15.7% of elected representatives, up from 9.7% in the previous election. Both the LDP and the CDP increased their female candidates. The CDP had the most female winners with 30 candidates, followed by the LDP with 19. Other parties, including the DPP (6), the JIP, the Komeito, and the Reiwa Shinsengumi (4 each), also saw gains, while the Communist Party elected 3 women. 
 

Source: NHK, https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/database/shugiin/

Demographics and Voting Trends 

Regional Trends

Many rural areas that supported the LDP in the 2021 election flipped to the CDP, marking a shift in traditionally conservative regions. Urban voters continued to back reform-focused parties, with the JIP maintaining its stronghold in Osaka and the CDP solidifying its presence in Tokyo. While the rural-urban divide persists, it has narrowed as opposition parties made gains in rural areas. In 2021, regions like Hokkaido, Tohoku, and Kyushu strongly favored the LDP, while urban centers leaned more towards opposition parties like the JIP and CDP.

Age Demographics

Younger voters’ support for the LDP declined significantly. Only 23.1% of voters in their teens and 19.9% in their 20s backed the LDP, reflecting a sharp drop of 14.6 and 18.1 percentage points compared to 2021. In contrast, the DPP saw a rise in support, gaining 11.7% of voters in their teens and 15.5% in their 20s. Among older voters, particularly those aged 70 and above, the LDP maintained its highest level of support at 39.2%, though this was still 3.2 points lower than in 2021. The CDP also gained with this age group, securing 26.2% of their votes, up 1.4 points from the previous election. Japan’s voting age is 18.

Gender Observation

When looking at gender differences, 33.8% of male voters supported the LDP, followed by 18.8% for the CDP and 7.3% each for the JIP and the DPP. Among female voters, the LDP secured 29.7%, with 16.4% voting for the CDP. The JIP and the Komeito party received 7.5% and 5.8% of the female vote, respectively. This shows that while the LDP retains a lead among male and female voters, opposition parties are gradually gaining ground, especially among younger demographics. 

Outlook for the Ishiba Administration and LDP 

The election results have jeopardized not only Ishiba’s but also the LDP’s general hold on power. As stipulated in the constitution, a special session of the Diet must be convened within 30 days of the General Election (i.e. by November 26). When the Diet convenes in a special session, the cabinet resigns en masse, and a new prime minister is chosen from among the members of either house. If Ishiba is re-selected, the second Ishiba administration will start. Otherwise, Ishiba will be Japan’s shortest-serving prime minister since the end of WWII.

For candidates to be nominated as prime minister, they must win a majority of the total votes. A runoff vote is conducted between the top two candidates if no candidate obtains a majority. As no political party has secured the majority in this General Election, it is likely that the candidates backed by the two largest parties—the LDP and the CDP—will be contenders. Therefore, the LDP and the CDP must grapple with securing allies to win the majority.

While the CDP has the upper hand amid the anti-ruling party sentiment shared among opposition parties, the key opposition parties—the CDP, the DPP, and the JIP—hold divergent positions on crucial topics (see the following table), rendering the formation of a coalition difficult. 

At the post-election press conference, Ishiba alluded to the possibility of cooperating with the DPP, which has stressed the importance of increasing disposable income of the working generation which secured them four times the number of seats compared to before this General Election. The DPP is emerging as the likely holder of the balance of power in the Diet. 

Policy Implications for Businesses 

Immediate Market Reactions—No Sign of Panic

Although on the morning of October 28 the Nikkei Stock Average started out lower due to the ruling power’s loss of majority, buyers gradually returned to the market against a backdrop of the weaker yen and higher US semiconductor stock prices. Some experts say that “the market had already factored in the ruling party's loss of majority as of last week.”

Status-Quo Until the Prime Minister’s Nomination at the Diet Special Session

As Ishiba failed to strengthen his political base during this General Election, it is unlikely that he will pursue his policy ambitions, which consisted of the review of the Japan-US Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) and the idea of an Asian version of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Rather, Ishiba will be preoccupied with defending his position as prime minister by restoring people’s trust in the LDP and finding supporters among the opposition parties to gain majority votes for the prime minister nomination. Therefore, businesses should expect the status quo to be maintained across various policy areas until the prime minister’s nomination. At the same time, businesses should closely monitor the unfolding political dynamics and embrace uncertainty.

Preparing for a Second Ishiba Administration … or a non-Ishiba Administration

Anticipating either scenario is the key to navigating the post-prime minister nomination process, which is full of uncertainty. 

Economy

A Second Ishiba Administration

Ishiba is likely to continue following the overall economic policies put forward by Kishida, including achieving wage increases, notably raising the average minimum wage to JPY 1,500 (USD 10) per hour nationwide in the next five years.

An Alternative Administration

On the economy, there are stark differences between the positions of the CDP and the DPP/JIP. While the CDP is slightly in favor of increasing taxes on large corporations, the DPP and the JIP are against it.

Both the DPP and the JIP appeal to the younger generation by stressing the importance of increasing the disposable income of the working generation. The JIP further advocates regulatory reforms, including in the Ride-Sharing Service Sector and promoting labor mobility.

Businesses should consider these characteristics when navigating business under a new administration.

Energy/Environment

A Second Ishiba Administration

Before the LDP Presidential Election on September 27, 2024, Ishiba argued for abandoning nuclear energy and replacing it with renewable energy. However, he changed his position during the General Election, claiming that nuclear energy is necessary. As the General Election made it clear that Ishiba will have a weak political base, it is likely for him to reflect the powerful voices on this issue from his own party and the business community, which deem nuclear energy as an essential energy source.

An Alternative Administration

The CDP, DPP, and JIP hold different positions on energy. The CDP is the most active in pursuing renewable energy. Towards achieving carbon neutrality without depending on fossil fuels and nuclear energy, it aims to make renewable energy 50% of electricity supply by 2030 and 100% by 2050. On the other hand, the JIP emphasizes nuclear power generation and supports the expansion of nuclear power plants. The DPP stands between the two parties, balancing the use of both renewable and nuclear energies to ensure energy security.

Businesses should consider these differences when considering how to engage with the new administration in the energy / environment area.

Foreign policy and security

A Second Ishiba Administration

Even if Ishiba were to win the nomination process successfully, his political base would not be strong enough to pursue his ideals in foreign policy/security, notably the aforementioned review of SOFA and the idea of an Asian version of NATO. The latter has received lukewarm responses from Japan’s major diplomatic, economic and trade partners in the Asia Pacific including Australia. He is likely to continue pursuing current foreign and security policies based on the Japan-US Alliance, thus, his policies will have limited impact on the business environment.

An Alternative Administration

While the CDP, DPP, and JIP place the Japan-US Alliance at the core of foreign and security policy, they have different views on the extent that Japan should depend on the alliance and how Japan should be involved with regional security. The JIP placed the most emphasis on the Japan-US Alliance and supports increasing the defense budget to 2% of GDP to enhance its “proactive defense capability.” This is likely to invite negative reactions from neighboring countries. The DPP believes that, while the Japan-US Alliance should be maintained and strengthened, Japan’s current defense policy is overly dependent on the US and that Japan should discuss the future of the Japan-US Security Treaty with the US. The CDP emphasized exclusive defense-oriented policies, addressed global challenges and promoted human rights diplomacy. It also aims to renegotiate with the US to review SOFA and the US bases in Okinawa. The challenge for the DPP and the CDP lies in whether they can achieve their policy goals amid the increasingly tense geopolitical environment in Northeast Asia and Asia Pacific in general.  

That said, all parties are likely to be compelled to strike a balance between their ideals and reality. Thus, it is unlikely there would be a major impact on the business environment as of now. 

Media Coverage

Various media outlets foresee the unfolding of destabilizing political dynamics.

• Several media outlets, including the Mainichi Shimbun, have drawn parallels between Japan’s 2024 election results and European political shifts, where voter dissatisfaction with mainstream parties has led to the rise of far-right and far-left movements.
• The Japan Times predicts that the LDP’s loss of majority will push Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to seek a third-party coalition to maintain power, weakening the LDP’s control and complicating governance, leading to greater instability.

Media continues to update Ishiba’s remarks and coalition talks.

• According to the Yomiuri Newspaper, Ishiba, while acknowledging the severity of the loss, does not intend to resign. Instead, he has indicated a willingness to collaborate with opposition parties, such as the DPP, to maintain an LDP-led government and to address urgent issues like rising prices.
• Meanwhile, the NHK reported internal restructuring within the Komeito party, particularly after its leader, Keiichi Ishii, lost his seat. Opponents like the CDP are exploring alliances to challenge the ruling coalition further.  

Foreign media headlines largely report the gravity of the longtime ruling party losing majority and the ensuing political uncertainty.

• Japan’s long-ruling party loses majority in stunning election defeat (The Washington Post) 
  • “Political instability is unusual in Japan, where the LDP has strengthened its grip on power for nearly seven decades.”
• Japan’s politics gets a rare dose of upheaval after snap election (BBC) 
  • “Japanese elections are normally steady and boring affairs—but this snap election was neither.”
• Japan plunged into political uncertainty after voters deliver dramatic defeat to longtime ruling party (CNN) 
  • “Japanese voters delivered a stinging rebuke to the country’s longtime ruling party in elections Sunday, plunging the world’s fourth largest economy into a rare period of political uncertainty.”
• Japan’s long-Governing Party Loses Its Majority (The New York Times) 

Materials presented by Edelman Global Advisory Japan. For additional information, reach out to Richard.Andrew@EdelmanEGA.com or Yuichi.Kori@EdelmanEGA.com