Poland set for pro-EU coalition government as populist right loses grip on power
On October 15, Poland’s populist right Law and Justice party (PiS), which has governed the country for the past eight years, lost its parliamentary majority and will exit government. This has now been confirmed in official results.
Former Prime Minister and European Council President Donald Tusk is expected to lead a new pro-European coalition government to be formed by Civic Coalition (KO), Third Way, and New Left. Formal appointment of the new government might take until December, and PiS will continue as interim government until then.
At over 74%, the elections saw the highest ever turnout of Polish voters—even higher than during the first partially-free elections after the fall of communism in 1989.
The toppling of the populist right PiS government marks the end of Polish government antagonism toward the European Union. The reforms to the Polish judiciary, which led to the EU blocking funding to Poland, will be reversed, and this funding will benefit businesses present in the country. Poland will be able to strengthen its influence within the EU.
A Historic Shift
A Record voter turnout heralds broad coalition government
In a pivotal moment for Poland last Sunday, voters in the heart of Europe flooded polling stations, participating in what has been described as the most decisive parliamentary elections in the last three decades. Facing a momentous choice, Poles had to decide whether to extend the ruling right-wing populist Law and Justice party’s control for an unprecedented third four-year term or embrace the path back to liberal and pro-European democracy with the democratic opposition.
With the final ballot count released on Tuesday, October 17, Poland stands on the brink of a new era. The democratic opposition, comprising Civic Coalition, Third Way, and New Left, received 53.7% of votes, translating into 248 seats, and secured a majority in the 460-seat lower house of parliament.
The current governing party, Law and Justice, received 35.4% of the votes, lost 41 parliamentary seats, and therefore its governing majority. It will have 194 seats for the upcoming term.
In a surprising turn, the far-right, anti-European party, Konfederacja, emerged as the major loser of these elections. It secured only 18 seats, receiving 7.2% of votes, significantly below its anticipated outcome.
In addition to their success in the lower house, the opposition parties scored a major victory in the upper house of the Polish parliament. With 66 Senate seats, they took over 15 seats from Law and Justice. Ultimately, PiS only won 34 seats for the upcoming term.
Traditionally, the President of Poland calls on the party with the most votes to nominate a prime minister and attempt to form a government, either independently or in coalition. However, PiS is highly unlikely to be able to command a parliamentary majority. The so-called democratic opposition parties have unequivocally refused to partner with it, and even with the support of Konfederacja—notwithstanding their deep disagreements over economic policy—a PiS-led coalition would be 19 seats short of a majority. If PiS’s attempt proves unsuccessful, the parliament will vote to nominate its choice of prime minister.
If the opposition, led by Donald Tusk, the former President of the European Council, successfully establishes a “coalition of coalitions” government, this will start a new chapter in the history of European democracy, according to the European Council on Foreign Relations. However, forming a new government from the opposition groups will require intricate internal negotiations—the major opposition groups diverge on key domestic policy issues such as abortion rights and same-sex marriage. Therefore, the parties must set aside their differences to collaborate and operate as a cohesive whole. This unity will be crucial to overcome constitutional changes made under successive PiS governments: laws can still be vetoed by President Andrzej Duda, who is aligned with PiS and is due to remain in office until 2025.
After the final results were published, Duda’s Chief of Cabinet, Paweł Szrot, discussed the timeline for consultations with parliamentary groups to establish a new government. According to Szrot, the President still has time before he must initiate these consultations, since the current term of the lower house of the parliament ends on November 14. Szrot emphasized the importance of avoiding “excessive haste,” asserting that the President is committed to adhering to all constitutional procedures.
If the President does choose the slowest timeline possible under the constitution, the opposition could take office as late as December. Likely new Prime Minister Tusk would then miss the opportunity to formally join two EU Summits, which would otherwise provide an opportunity to present in person to other EU leaders Poland’s fresh stance on Ukraine, the economy, migration, and potentially the future strategic agenda for the EU. Ways can always be found to take views into account, but there is no substitute for being in the room where it happens.
What Does It Mean?
The three primary opposition blocs are ready to establish a pro-European administration, vowing to restore democracy. All eyes across Europe were fixed on Poland last Sunday, and there is potential for significant change in the nation’s political course.
International commentators are optimistic that a Tusk-led government will not only restore democracy and strengthen ties with Brussels and Kyiv but also stimulate pro-EU sentiment across Europe, setting the stage for the upcoming EU elections in June 2024. Since 2015, Law and Justice’s approach to domestic and geopolitical issues has often been adversarial, with geopolitical targets including the European Union, Berlin and, most recently, Ukraine, and domestic policy targets including Polish women, migrants, and the LGBTQIA+ community.
Five things to look for:
Poland is set to bolster ties with the European Union and strengthen its position within the bloc.
The opposition is expected to fix relations with the EU as soon as possible, initially by restoring the independence of the judiciary and the rule of law. That will ease the tension that existed between the European Commission and the previous government.
EU policymakers have high hopes that Poland will be a strong EU partner from now on. German Green MEP Terry Reintke tweeted: “This evening could be a massive game changer for Europe. Having Poland back at the table of constructive negotiations in the EU will make all of us stronger. In a moment of so many common challenges, this is absolutely crucial for everyone in Europe.”
Poland’s engagement will strengthen the position of centrists at the EU level.
The opposition’s victory is set to reshape the European political landscape. The forthcoming government is expected to include members from a wide range of European political groups: the European People’s Party (EPP), Greens, Renew Europe, and the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), which will increase moderate voices within the European Council. The departure of PiS from government will reduce the right-wing ECR group’s influence at the European level, and this will fall further when the new government nominates a moderate Polish Commissioner for the next European Commission from October 2024.
Tusk’s return to power in Warsaw marks a significant triumph for the EPP. The influential center-right alliance also counts Commission President Ursula von der Leyen among its members. Her bid for a second term as Commission President following the European elections in June is potentially strengthened by the Polish results.
Hungary’s ViKtor Orbán loses Poland’s support in his battles against the EU.
PiS and Mateusz Morawiecki have been long-standing allies of the Hungarian government, and their departure from government will leave Prime Minister Orbán more isolated at the EU level on issues of immigration and rule of law. He might find a new, though less influential, fellow traveler in Slovakia’s Robert Fico, who emerged victorious in elections earlier this month. At the time, PM Orbán tweeted: Guess who’s back! Congratulations to Robert Fico on his undisputable victory in the Slovak parliamentary elections. Always good to work together with a patriot. Looking forward to it!
Poland is set to strengthen its relations with Ukraine.
Poland has been a committed advocate for Ukraine within the EU and NATO, hosting a substantial number of Ukrainian refugees. Poland’s stance on Ukraine has been significant in shaping the EU’s view as a whole. Tensions between Warsaw and Kyiv have risen recently due to a grain import ban designed to shield Polish farmers. The new government has a chance not only to improve these strained relations but also lead the EU’s responses to the Ukrainian-Russian conflict.
European commentators hope to see a boost of pro-European sentiment ahead of the 2024 EU elections.
Poland’s move away from the populist right strengthens pro-EU sentiment in the continent. Katja Leikert, a German Christian Democrat member of parliament and member of the foreign relations committee tweeted that it “gives hope” to Europe: “To once again have a pro-democratic and pro-European government in Warsaw would be of enormous importance to Europe, especially in this time of crisis.”
Why Does It Matter?
The shift in power in Poland has potential to increase public funds for businesses there.
For the last two years, Poland’s EUR 35.4 billion EU funding from the Recovery and Resilience Fund has been delayed due to Brussels’ concern at the government’s judicial reforms and the rule of law. If the opposition successfully addresses the European Commission’s concerns, these funds could be released. Didier Reynders, European Commissioner for Justice, indicated in an interview that the EU is assessing the potential to unlock money from the recovery and resilience plan: “We are examining the programs, analyzing the election outcomes, and, more importantly, evaluating the reforms.”
The Polish Recovery Plan envisages these funds will be allocated to resilience and competitiveness of the economy; green energy and reducing energy consumption; digital transformation; efficiency, accessibility, and quality of the healthcare system; and green and smart mobility.
The EU’s green transition may gain more support.
The previous government was resistant to the European Green Deal and opposed the EU’s Fit for 55 initiatives designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Earlier this year, Jarosław Kaczyński, de facto leader of the PiS government, arguedFit for 55 primarily favored wealthier member states and labeled the European Parliament as promoting “green communism.” The opposition takes a different view and has committed to enhancing renewable energy sources.
The biggest opposition alliance, Civic Coalition, has vowed to present, in its first 100 days in office, a detailed plan for energy transition that will enable a 75% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030. It wishes to accelerate the development of low-emission energy sources like renewable energy and nuclear power. The Third Way alliance puts an emphasis on green and cheap electricity from renewable energy sources, especially domestic solar panels, and advocates ending clearcut logging, expanding national parks, and restoring nature reserves. New Left advocates the use of solar panels as well as offshore and onshore wind, and expects the majority of electricity consumed by 2035 to come from renewable energy sources.
Measures under the EU Green Deal may therefore gain more backing in the European Council. The European Commission will propose interim 2040 climate targets in Q1 2024 and, although there is no guarantee of unconditional support, the new Polish government will be a more receptive and cooperative partner for discussions on this and other issues.
