General Election 2024: Starmer wins big but what next?

New Prime Minister: new mission

A politics of service and a mission of national renewal. Those were Keir Starmer’s twin themes as he spoke from the steps of Downing Street at lunchtime today.

The new Prime Minister’s speech was a patriotic call for a low key, dogged and determined resetting of the nation. If it was a clarion call, it was one that recognised the public have rejected hyperbole. He promised a return of “respect to politics” that will “end the era of noisy performance, tread more lightly on your lives and unite our country”.

But while he promised a quieter leadership, he recognised the scale of change needed to meet the demands of the public in this election. “Our country needs a reset and a re-discovery of who we are”, he said.

And his message was aimed squarely at everyone. “Whether you voted Labour or not – especially if you did not – my government will serve you.” Because, by his reckoning, politicians have lost the trust of the British public by making out-sized and undeliverable promises that have left too many people behind. “For too long we’ve turned a blind eye as people slide into instability.”

So Starmer returned to the theme that many say is his driving motivation: service. Government should and will serve. His government will visibly and notably serve the public. Because, as he said, “service is the precondition of hope”.

If service is essential for delivery and delivery is what his government will do, then the Prime Minister also warned that change is not easy. “Changing a country is not like flicking a switch. The world is now a more volatile place. This will take a while but have no doubt that the work of change begins immediately.”

Conservative messaging towards the end of the campaign had wild warnings of hard left politics under a Labour Government. That was never likely with the considered approach of Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves. But Starmer today made it abundantly clear that his government will just do what works “unburdened by doctrine”, as he said.

And because this was a speech about patriotism, continuity and change, his tribute to Rishi Sunak, the outgoing Prime Minister, was a full-hearted recognition of his service to the nation and “the extra effort which should not be under-estimated” to have been the country’s first British Asian leader.

In front of crowds of friends, supporters and party activists armed with flags (and un-needed union jack umbrellas!) the Prime Minister concluded his speech with an invitation to everyone to join this mission of national renewal. He and his wife then briefly stood on the steps of No 10 for photos before heading to take on his mission. In a morning and just fourteen hours after polls closed, the rapid and stable handover of power that is a hallmark of Britain’s democracy was concluded.

New Cabinet: what to look out for

Starmer was quick to appoint his Cabinet this afternoon, with his senior frontbench team entering Downing Street swiftly one after the other. The Cabinet announced today reflects Starmer’s team in opposition, with many of the new Ministers in their roles for several years, bringing continuity to the party’s policy plans. Even journalists were taken by surprise by the speed with which the new Cabinet Ministers filed through the famous black door. Like Labour’s campaign over the past six weeks, it was a carefully choreographed operation and one sending a clear message: Labour are ready to govern.

First into No.10 this afternoon was Angela Rayner, now Deputy Prime Minister and Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities. Elected by Labour members as the party’s Deputy Leader in 2020, things haven’t always been easy between her and the Labour Leader, but she has become a key member of his frontbench team and will now be driving forward his government’s work in housing, among other priority policy areas. Rayner is the first female Deputy Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, a hugely significant moment for her, the Labour Party and the country.

Rachel Reeves has been appointed the first female Chancellor of the Exchequer. The Member of Parliament for Leeds West and Pudsey has been Starmer’s Shadow Chancellor since 2021 and has been central to Labour’s journey over the past three years. Reeves’ approach to economic policy is a core part of the party’s strategy and her focus on economic credibility will be a guiding principle of this incoming Labour government. The new Chancellor, working with Starmer and Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds, has been pivotal in transforming Labour’s relationship with the business community. The hard work starts now for Reeves who will this weekend be uncovering the scale of the economic challenge facing Labour over the months and years to come.

Making up the great four offices of state are David Lammy as Foreign Secretary and Yvette Cooper in the Home Office. Cooper will bring a wealth of experience to the role, one of a few members of this Cabinet to have served at such a senior level in Government under the last Labour administration. Lammy has been a key ally of the Labour Leader and will drive forward their agenda on the international stage. Also bringing Government experience, and much more besides, is former Labour Leader Ed Miliband who has been appointed Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero. Absolutely committed to the green agenda, Miliband will have a big role as Labour grapple with how to achieve their net zero ambitions. Other experienced members of Starmer’s Cabinet include John Healey, Secretary of State for Defence, and Pat McFadden, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

Starmer’s Cabinet also includes a newer band of MPs, who have really made their mark as key members of his team. Of particular note, Jonathan Reynolds (Secretary of State for Business and Trade), Wes Streeting (Secretary of State for Health and Social Care) and Bridget Phillipson (Secretary of State for Education) have all been instrumental in driving forward Starmer’s agenda and have been key communicators of Labour’s message on the airwaves. We will see a lot more of this group as they get to work on these major policy areas. Other newer faces include Peter Kyle (Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology), Darren Jones (expected to be appointed Chief Secretary to the Treasury but not yet confirmed) and Louise Haigh (Secretary of State for Transport).

Jonathan Ashworth’s surprise defeat in Leicester South and Thangam Debbonaire’s anticipated defeat by Green Co-Leader Carla Denyer have led to two vacancies in Starmer’s senior frontbench team. Lisa Nandy has been confirmed as the new Culture Secretary to fill the void left by Debbonaire. For the current list of the new Cabinet please see the appendix.

Key appointments to note

• Angela Rayner, Deputy Prime Minister and Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities
• Rachel Reeves, Chancellor of the Exchequer
• David Lammy, Foreign Secretary
• Yvette Cooper, Home Secretary
• Jonathan Reynolds, Secretary of State for Business and Trade

The fallout for the Conservatives begins

While recriminations will no doubt ensue over the weekend, the truth today is that few Conservatives have had the inclination to participate in the media autopsy of their election performance. Those who lost their seats are licking their wounds; those returned to the Commons will find little solace in such a pyrrhic victory. In private, however, there is little doubt about who is to blame.

A now-former Cabinet Minister told EGA this afternoon:

“Sunak got every single call wrong about this election – most of all the timing and the readiness of the Party machine. He started and ended the campaign in the rain, and then had the gall to give a peerage to one of its key architects. He’s the worst Leader we’ve ever had.”

It is becoming clearer as the day wears on that the defeated Conservatives are just as divided in Opposition as they were in Government. WhatsApp groups are lighting up as Tories begin to fight over who is at fault over this crushing defeat. With a leadership election fast coming down the track, those seeking to stand are already seeking to establish dividing lines between camps. With the Party seemingly bound for open ideological warfare, perhaps many will agree with Steve Baker, the ousted MP for Wycombe, who upon defeat declared his relief at being ‘freed’.

And what next for the Party?

Sunak this morning confirmed his intention to stand down, and the Party – for the third time in two years – must hold a leadership contest. This is not as simple as it once was: Conservative representation in the House of Commons was slashed by two-thirds overnight. Some would-be pretenders to the Tory crown, such as Grant Shapps and Penny Mordaunt, were given the boot by the electorate. The rump that remains is bitterly divided into several factions.

Campaign teams are being hastily pulled together and colleagues sounded out, but this contest is an unattractive prospect. The Conservative Party seems bound to descend into open warfare about its future direction, and the question eligible contenders must surely be asking themselves is: do I really want this job?

What’s next?

In launching Labour’s ‘first steps for change’, Starmer sought to provide a clear outline of the tangible changes his government would seek to implement in the first few months in office. The six steps represent concrete deliverables that the party aim to implement early on in their time in power as they seek to engender a ‘decade of national renewal’.

Now that Starmer is officially Prime Minister and has delivered his first speech on the steps of Downing Street, the real work starts. To achieve the ‘change’ Starmer promised, the King’s Speech on Wednesday 17 July will be pivotal. Prioritisation will be key. There is simply not enough parliamentary time to pass every piece of legislation Labour has planned for their first term in the next 12 months.

We can expect Labour to major on the legislation required to codify their fiscal rules, switch on GB Energy, launch the new Border Security Command and reform our country’s planning rules. Labour fought the campaign on offering ‘change’. Having won a landslide, each of these Bills will pass without much challenge. Labour will be hoping that these items of legislation will help them to demonstrate that they are serious about living up to their campaign mantra.

Further to this, Starmer and the new Labour Government have a series of international engagements in their calendar. Starmer’s first appearance on the global stage will be at next week’s NATO Summit in Washington D.C. Issues on the agenda will of course include the ongoing situation in Ukraine, conflict in the Middle East and the looming US elections in November.

The UK will then host a gathering of the European Political Community on Thursday 18 July. As part of this, Starmer will welcome close to 50 heads of government to Blenheim Palace. Labour majored on engendering stronger relations with our European partners in their manifesto. Building on the NATO Summit, this will be the first test of whether Starmer is able to turn that ambition into reality.

International reaction

There are no surprises in the international response to Labour's election win. The tone and format of global leaders' communiques have been positive. Democratic leaders have been swift to issue their congratulations with many signaling the areas that they expect to build on with the new British Government. Economics, security, and interlinked with both, technology, are key Labour priorities and these too were reflected in the messages.

Security was highlighted by Israel, Estonia and Ukraine, with the latter two having immediate eyes on Russia. Estonia's PM Kaja Kallas (and the EU’s next chief diplomat) spoke of “common security” while President Zelensky was more emphatic in praising the relationship as "reliable allies through thick and thin". Zelensky's further reference to shared "common values of life, freedom, and a rules- based international order" also resonated in messages from European Council President Charles Michel, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and French President Emmanuel Macron. All were linked by themes of strengthening European security, with Macron making deliberate mention of climate and AI as key priorities.

At the heart of global economic and geopolitical interests, immediate messages of congratulations from Asia hinted more toward future and strategic linkages. The strengthening of 'strategic partnerships', 'strategic relationships' and "constructive collaboration …for mutual growth and prosperity" came from Singapore, Malaysia and India. Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has also stated that he looks forward “to working constructively” with the new British government. Both India and Australia are considered key security and economic 'bookends' to Chinese influence in Asia.

Across the Atlantic, Canada's Justin Trudeau's support was emphatic, praising Labour's historic win in his call for collaboration in "building a more progressive, fair future for people on both sides of the Atlantic,” signing off warmly with “Let’s get to it, my friend.” In the US and still celebrating its Independence Day, former (and possible future) President Trump was the first to comment but ignored Starmer. Trump instead issued his congratulations to Nigel Farage on Reform UK’s election success.

As the Labour Government gets to work further clarity will come on foreign governments’ expectations and hopes. All will now be watching Starmer’s final Cabinet line-up and for its first steps in implementing the change it has been championing throughout the election.

Market reaction

The news of Labour’s resounding electoral success has been met with a muted reaction from markets, as investors had largely priced in such a result in recent weeks. The more domestically orientated FTSE 250 was up slightly by 1.7% in early morning trading, reflecting relief at the removal of any uncertainty around the election.

Across the board, investors have reiterated their hopes that Labour’s win will lead to a period of stability, helping to restore confidence in the UK’s economic outlook and its position as an attractive destination for capital. In this vein, Gervais Williams, Head of Equities at Premier Miton Investors, commented: "It is time for Labour to turn its pro-business rhetoric to reality and kickstart UK plc.” In particular, investors identify construction as an area set to benefit under the new Government, with Labour committed to building 1.5 million homes over five years. All eyes will now be on whether Starmer can make good on his party's commitments to growth and when the Bank of England's first rate cut will take place. Mark Nash, Huw Davies, and James Novotny at Jupiter Asset Management commented: “Growth will be [Labour's] get-out-of-jail-free card, easier said but harder to deliver,” noting the party will likely attempt to stimulate the economy through a better trade deal with the EU and liberalising planning laws.

Appendix: full list of Cabinet appointments

Sir Keir Starmer has announced almost all of his Cabinet Ministers, with more announcements expected in the coming hours.

Ministers of State and junior Ministers will be announced over the course of the weekend. We expect the new Prime Minister’s full ministerial team to be in place by early next week ahead of the re- commencement of parliamentary business. The new Parliament has been called to meet on Tuesday 9 July when the business will be the election of the Speaker.

Starmer’s Cabinet appointments:

• Rt Hon Angela Rayner MP | Deputy Prime Minister and Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities
• Rt Hon Rachel Reeves MP | Chancellor of the Exchequer
• Rt Hon Pat McFadden MP | Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster
• Rt Hon David Lammy MP | Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs
• Rt Hon Yvette Cooper MP | Secretary of State for the Home Department
• Rt Hon John Healey MP | Secretary of State for Defence
• Rt Hon Shabana Mahmood MP | Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice
• Rt Hon Wes Streeting MP | Secretary of State for Health and Social Care
• Rt Hon Bridget Phillipson MP | Secretary of State for Education
• Rt Hon Ed Miliband MP | Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero
• Rt Hon Liz Kendall MP | Secretary of State for Work and Pensions
• Rt Hon Jonathan Reynolds MP | Secretary of State for Business and Trade
• Rt Hon Peter Kyle MP | Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology
• Rt Hon Louise Haigh MP | Secretary of State for Transport
• Rt Hon Lisa Nandy MP | Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport
• Rt Hon Steve Reed MP | Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

Likely further appointments later this evening:

• Rt Hon Ian Murray MP | Secretary of State for Scotland
• Rt Hon Lucy Powell MP | Leader of the House of Commons
• Rt Hon Jo Stevens MP | Secretary of State for Wales
• Rt Hon Alan Campbell MP | Government Chief Whip in the House of Commons
• Rt Hon Darren Jones MP | Chief Secretary to the Treasury
• Rt Hon Hilary Benn MP | Secretary of State for Northern Ireland

Materials presented by Edelman Global Advisory London. For additional information, reach out to Mohammed.Hussein@EdelmanEGA.com

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