EGA Five Facts to Know: Election Day
It’s Election Day in America. If you live in the United States, there’s an election near you being decided today. After tonight (or perhaps over the next few months), we’ll learn who will control the 118th Congress and if President Joe Biden is going to have a rough two years.
1. If you're reading this, people are voting right now.
While today is officially Election Day, over 39.2 million Americans have already voted in the midterm elections. We are on track for a record year where early voting is higher than in past U.S. midterm elections. This election will be a referendum on Joe Biden and the economy. In this election cycle, there are several ways Americans can vote, including absentee, mail-in, and in-person voting. While we will have a strong showing of early voting and absentee voting, most Americans still vote on Election Day.
2. The polls are closing tonight...but the results might take a little longer.
While we will likely receive most election results Tuesday night, it may take longer in some states for the vote to be fully counted. This is normal and expected to ensure accuracy of the results.
In some states, absentee and mail-in ballots are counted before the election, as they receive them. But in other states, counting doesn’t start until after polls close. This means that in close elections, it could take several days before we know the final results. In Arizona, for example, while ballots are due by 7pm, officials have 20 days to finalize their counts. In Nevada, counties have four days to count mail-in ballots that might have arrived after Election Day; they also allow voters to “cure,” or fix, any clerical errors on their ballot.
In Georgia, if neither candidate receives 50% of the vote, then a run-off will will be decided on December 6, 2022. That would mean four more weeks of ads, an influx of cash, and on-the-ground operatives to push their desired outcome. Woof.
3. Key races to keep an eye on
In a closely divided Congress, every seat matters. Consider the map: In the House of Representatives, Democrats hold the majority with 220 seats, while Republicans hold 212. Republicans need only gain five seats to regain control of the House. In the Senate, Republicans need only flip one seat to gain control (but let’s be clear, 51 votes in the Senate are not a golden ticket to policy wins). There are also 36 governor races on the ballot, some of them extremely competitive. A few races to watch:
- Arizona: Republicans hope to elect Kari Lake and Blake Masters (both endorsed by Trump) into the Governor’s mansion and U.S. Senate, respectively. Both candidates have made election denial a centerpiece of their campaigns but have also leaned into economic and cultural issues to drive the conversation. Democrats have put up Katie Hobbs, the current Arizona Secretary of State, and Mark Kelly, the current Arizona Senator, both of whom have defended the integrity of elections in their campaign
- Georgia: When Joe Biden flipped Georgia blue in 2020, he reminded all of us just how close elections in the state could be. Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) won his Senate seat, enabling Democrats to claw their way back to control of the U.S. Senate. This year, running against him in a tight race is Heisman Trophy winner Herschel Walker, who has campaigned on economic issues but mired in scandal. Both candidates have pleaded with voters to turn out so that the race doesn’t go to a runoff. Also happening: Incumbent Governor Brian Kemp (R)'s rematch against Stacey Abrams (D).
- Michigan: Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) is defending her seat against Trump-endorsed Tudor Dixon (R). In the last few elections, Michigan elections have been extremely close, and in 2020, Michigan voters are also deciding on key ballot initiatives that would expand voting access and protect abortion rights.
- Nevada: Nevada has two close elections this year. Running for governor are Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) and Sheriff Joe Lombardo (R). Running for the Senate seat are Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) and former State Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R). We might not know who wins these elections until later this week because Nevada state law gives counties four days to count mail-in ballots that might have arrived after Election Day, and also allows voters to “cure” their ballot.
- Pennsylvania: In one of the most meme-able races in the nation, Pennsylvania Lt. Governor John Fetterman (D) and host of the Dr. Oz Show, Mehmet Oz (R), are battling for the Senate seat. Pennsylvania helped put Joe Biden over the top in 2020, but Democrats have suffered greatly in the state due to inflation, the economy, and crime driving the narrative. In a key governor’s race, State Attorney General Josh Shapiro is running against Senator Doug Mastriano, who supported Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. This race is critical because the governor appoints the Commonwealth’s secretary of state, who oversees state elections.
- Wisconsin: In a state that has played an important role in the last few presidential elections, Senator Ron Johnson (R) and Governor Tony Evers (D) are defending their seats against formidable candidates. Running for Senator is Mandela Barnes (D), the Lt. Governor of Wisconsin and a candidate who has struggled to defend against attacks that paint him as soft on crime. Tim Michels (R) is vying for the governor's seat, propelled forward by an endorsement from former President Trump.
4. Election security
Even though the 2020 election cycle has been deemed one of the safest in our nation’s history, this election cycle we’ve seen a record number of candidates claiming that the election process in America is ripe with fraud and abuse. According to the Brennan Center, fraud is very rare, and voter impersonation is virtually nonexistent. Their research also emphasizes that mail-in ballots are secure.
This week, top U.S. election security officials have said they have no evidence that election infrastructure has been altered by hostile actors to prevent voting or vote counting. However, the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency has warned against other threats, like the spread of disinformation, physical threats, and the intimidation of election officials. Read More: The National Guard is offering cybersecurity assistance in fourteen states this week to defend against potential threats.
5. What happens next?
In short...a lot
- Election results trickle in: No results will come in until the polls start to close at 6:00 p.m. Each state will go through the counting process, submit results through the proper channels, and then –and only then – will we see winners emerge. While in 2020 the flood of mail-in ballots caused the count to take longer than usual, this year, we don’t expect the count to take as long. We will likely know tonight who will win control over the House of Representatives.
- Maybe a runoff? If no candidate in Georgia receives over 50% of the vote, then Georgia has four weeks to host runoffs for their next Senator. This would mean four more weeks of ads and wall-to-wall political coverage, a scenario we know neither Rev. Warnock nor Mr. Walker would like.
- Republicans and Democrats elect congressional leadership: After Congressional elections, both parties select their political leaders for both chambers. The Republican Conference is scheduled to host its elections almost immediately, while the Democratic Caucus has delayed its elections by a few weeks. If Republicans are successful in taking back the House, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R) will most likely be elected speaker, but questions remain as to whether Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D) would run again for her leadership position.
- President Biden and former President Trump make key decisions: Both Biden and Trump need to decide what their plans are for 2024. The former president has teased a “big announcement” later this week, while Team Biden has been quieter about the president's future.
