Double by-election defeat stuns Conservatives, puts Labour back on track for general election victory
Labour has emphatically won the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by-elections, overturning sizeable Conservative majorities in a disastrous night for the Government.
How did we get here?
With the governing party traditionally given a kicking at by-elections, and national polling consistently putting Labour around 18 points in the lead, this was always expected to be a difficult night for the Conservatives. These factors, however, were compounded by the specific set of circumstances which brought about these by-elections.
In Mid Beds, the former MP, Nadine Dorries, first announced her intention to quit in June after Boris Johnson’s attempt to award her a peerage was blocked. Determined to cause a headache for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, she then waited 78 days before formally stepping down, depriving her outraged constituents of any Westminster representation during this period.
In more sinister events, the former Tamworth MP Chris Pincher stood down in September when it became clear the parliamentary authorities would suspend him for sexual misconduct—an offense which he had committed while holding the pastoral role of Deputy Chief Whip under Boris Johnson.
Consequently, Conservative Chairman Greg Hands had put the party into expectation management overdrive, with ministers taking to the airwaves with the message that “governments simply don’t win by-elections.” As ever, it was the results on polling day—not spin from one side or the other—which told the real story: the voters in both constituencies have turfed the Tories out with gusto.
The Conservative perspective
The defeats have sent shockwaves through Conservative circles, with WhatsApp groups ominously silent this morning. A former Cabinet Minister texted EGA UK this morning simply with the words “oh dear,” and we were reliably informed that such was the dearth of ministers willing to defend the Tories on broadcast media that former special advisers were being begged to appear on television instead. These defeats simply cannot be shrugged off so close to a general election, and Tory MPs will be looking to Rishi Sunak for leadership at the party’s lowest ebb in this electoral cycle.
There was much talk in the run-up to poll about where disillusioned Conservative voters would go in these seats. Would they switch directly to Labour in Tamworth? Would the Liberal Democrats present a “third way” in Mid Beds? For those who stayed up to watch, from midnight onwards it was clear that many simply did not turn up at all, with turnout down nearly 30% in both seats.
Conservatives will feel that these defeats are the strongest indication yet that voters are clamouring for change. The economy is still underperforming, National Health Service waiting lists are soaring and the small boats immigration crisis continues broadly unabated. The Chancellor’s effective ruling-out of tax cuts before the election will only add to the sense of gloom among many Conservatives. In spite of their landslide win less than four years ago, the Tories now stand on the precipice of a monumental shift in the political landscape. Sunak is running out of road, and his party knows it.
The Labour perspective
When the Labour Party gathered for its annual conference earlier this month, it had a spring in its step following the by-election win in Rutherglen and Hamilton West. This, coupled with a well-executed conference, buoyed the mood in Tamworth and Mid Beds, with many of the hundreds of activists who descended on the two constituencies quietly confident about their chances.
By Friday morning, the mood was jubilant. Keir Starmer described the results as a “gamechanger” and a “redrawing of the political map,” and the party’s outlook is ever more confident as it eyes the prospect of government after 13 years in opposition. The party will be further encouraged after using these by-elections to roll out their new “YIMBY” strategy of proposing to build 1.5 million new homes.
With this said, some Labour veterans are wisely cautioning against hubris. Starmer will need to ensure that the party steers well clear of complacency and continues to work hard to earn back voters across the country. As Alistair Strathern, the Party’s new MP in Med Beds, put it: “Nowhere is off limits for this Labour Party.” It will be Starmer’s job to make sure he is right.
What does this mean?
When EGA spoke to a Downing Street source this morning, they were at pains to tell us that “by-elections are different,” citing poor turnout and pointing out that the Tories lost by-elections in 2014 before winning a majority in 2015. Those sticking to prescribed lines must understand that even in the context of by-elections, these are no ordinary defeats.
In Mid Beds, a seat held by the Tories since 1931, Labour won with a swing of over 20%—the largest Conservative majority to be overturned by Labour at a by-election since 1945. The 24% swing in Tamworth, meanwhile, is the second-largest swing to Labour in postwar electoral history. To find comparable by-election swings against a governing party we need to go back to the 1992-97 Parliament—which ended in Tony Blair storming to victory with the largest government majority in modern history.
How might Sunak and his team respond? We saw with his net zero backtracking and HS2 cancellation that he is not afraid of rolling the dice—we must expect more such moves between now and the election. Another group planning their next move is Sunak’s potential leadership successors. How might the battle for the soul of the party shape up if he resigns following an election defeat? Could net zero be for the chop altogether, or European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) membership traded away in a deal on immigration with the Tory right? Strategists will also be eyeing the 5.4% vote share that Reform garnered in Tamworth—more than enough to tip the balance in many individual seats. Others will simply see last night as an affirmation that the game is up.
Perhaps the most important point is this: Labour’s path to victory now seems far more navigable than it did just 24 hours ago. Even if it wins its biggest-ever majority (180+) at the next election, Labour could still afford for both Tamworth and Mid Beds to stay blue. The fact that they have taken both, so close to the next election—which the Government may now wish to push back to the last possible moment—must surely be seen as a harbinger for a seismic defeat for the Conservatives when the country next goes to the polls.
