What has happened?
Today, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has accepted the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister and Justice Secretary Dominic Raab following the publication of a report into allegations of bullying and intimidation against Civil Servants.
The probe report, led by Adam Tolley KC, was received by Sunak yesterday, with the Prime Minister being the ultimate arbiter of Raab’s political fate. The inquiry began in November 2022 and considered the evidence and testimony of dozens of Civil Servants relating to at least eight formal complaints across three different Government departments.
Raab has consistently maintained his innocence throughout this process and his resignation letter to the Prime Minister clearly demonstrated his frustration; he claimed that “In setting the threshold for bullying so low, this inquiry has set a dangerous precedent. It will encourage spurious complaints against Ministers and have a chilling effect on those driving change on behalf of your Government – and ultimately the British people.”
Analysis: What is the political significance?
In his first speech on the steps of Downing Street, Rishi Sunak sought to distance himself from the chaos and allegations of impropriety which preceded him. He pledged that his Government would have “integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level”. Despite promising to make a ‘swift’ decision upon receiving the Tolley report, he allowed Raab the opportunity to resign 24 hours after the document landed. In doing so, the Prime Minister allowed a narrative of him being weak to develop. Labour frontbencher Wes Streeting today accused Sunak of being "too weak" to stand up to his own party in relation to the Raab debacle.
The obvious question that remains unanswered (and will continue to stalk Sunak): knowing that he was likely going to have to fire Raab over these well-known allegations, why did Sunak appoint him in the first place? Was it out of personal loyalty? Was it because he believed Raab is an effective minister that could drive through judicial reform? Or did Sunak simply cut a deal with Raab last summer to gain his support during the leadership race? Either way, the Prime Minister’s judgement has been called into question once again. Expect Keir Starmer to capitalize on this.
Ultimately, Sunak was always in an impossible position with the Raab inquiry. The Prime Minister has made clear his determination to distance his Government – and the Conservative Party – from the allegations of ‘sleaze’ and bad practice that plagued Boris Johnson’s premiership and accelerated his departure from No.10. The same issues, however, continue to follow the current Prime Minister around. Some Conservative backbenchers are unhappy that the Prime Minister has seemingly abandoned another one of his Ministers and thrown him to the political wolves as well as given the Civil Service “blob” in their view a victory. But from Sunak’s perspective, what sort of message would it have sent had Raab remained in post? Vast swathes of the Civil Service would have been in uproar – only adding to an already fractured relationship.
Having said this, the fact that Sunak has accepted Raab’s resignation – and not formally dismissed him - is politically more palatable for the Prime Minister than it could otherwise have been just a couple of weeks away from a key set of local elections. The Prime Minister, who does not have a direct mandate from the public or from Conservative Party members, is dependent on the support of his MPs, and is trying to strike a balance between keeping different factions of the Conservative Party on side whilst managing a difficult relationship with the Civil Service. In the mind of those at No.10, this outcome, whilst not ideal, strikes the right chord.
There felt an inevitability about this decision. Sunak’s swift removal of Sir Gavin Williamson from Government less than a month into his premiership following multiple bullying allegations in many ways set a precedent for how the Prime Minister would deal with such claims against his Ministers. However, the Raab saga brings one glaring constitutional difficulty back into the spotlight – interpretation of the ministerial code rests solely on the shoulders of the Prime Minister. Many will continue to question whether such a system is sustainable.
For his part, Raab alienated himself from certain Conservative colleagues during last summer’s leadership contest in which he criticized former Prime Minister Liz Truss in a series of ‘gloves off’ attacks. Many Conservative MPs found this ‘blue on blue’ warfare distasteful and Raab has subsequently been unable to regain his standing in the party. But with his resignation letter, Raab is clearly not going quietly and will have struck a chord with many Conservative MPs and supporters with his warning about the impact of this report on future interactions between Ministers and Civil Servants. As the last few years have shown, Conservative MPs have come to view the Civil Service as more overtly political and obstructive of the Government’s democratic mandate. Indeed, Conservatives are continuing to vent their frustrations that the Civil Service have allegedly leaked and briefed against Priti Patel, Dominic Raab and most recently Alok Sharma when it comes to bullying claims.
The Prime Minister cannot get away from the fact he has lost three Ministers to scandal in the past six months. The practical question looking towards the next General Election will become: is this a “Westminster bubble” story that nobody outside SW1 cares about, or is sleaze and scandal still at the forefront of voters’ minds?
The Prime Minister has done much is recent months to restore stability and credibility to a Conservative Party languishing behind Labour in the polls, but these distractions only add weight to the notion that Sunak is not the clean break from his predecessors he is trying to portray himself as and has the same vulnerabilities when the going gets tough.
The next General Election will likely be fought and decided predominantly on economic arguments, in particular the cost-of-living crisis, but standards and integrity will also be a factor. Sunak needs to demonstrate that he and the Conservative Party have moved on from internal psychodramas and are focused on delivering for the British people. But with questions lingering about his wife’s financial interests, the Privileges Committee’s ongoing investigation into Boris Johnson, and now the Dominic Raab debacle, Sunak knows he has work to do in convincing the British public that the past has truly been put to bed.
Mini-Reshuffle
Alex Chalk (Secretary of State for Justice and Lord Chancellor) – As Dominic Raab’s replacement, Chalk is a strong ally of Rishi Sunak and was a vocal supporter of his during the summer leadership election. He is widely considered to be a competent minister who is well regarded across the Conservative Party. Chalk is a One Nation Conservative who is likely to be a strong defender of the UK’s continued membership of the ECHR.
James Cartlidge (Minister of State, Ministry of Defense) – Replacing Alex Chalk at the Ministry of Defense, Cartlidge is being reshuffled from his role as Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury. He is another Sunak and Hunt insider, having worked for both of them at various points as their Parliamentary Private Secretary. He also served this role for Defense Secretary, Ben Wallace. He has also previously served as Minister in the Ministry of Justice and as a Government Whip.
Oliver Dowden (Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Deputy Prime Minister) – There are few MPs closer to the Prime Minister, both personally and ideologically. Oliver was instrumental in organizing Sunak’s summer leadership campaign and is seen as his right-hand man. From serving as David Cameron’s Deputy Chief of Staff to being the Cabinet Office Minister, Oliver embodies the One Nation tradition within the Conservative Party.
Gareth Davies (Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury) – Davies is a rising star in the Conservative Party and takes his first steps on the Ministerial ladder as Exchequer Secretary. He previously sat on the Financial Services and Markets Bill Committee and is another keen supporter of Rishi Sunak.
Chloe Smith (Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology) – Unrelated to the resignation of Dominic Raab, Chloe Smith has been appointed to cover for Michelle Donelan who is on maternity leave. Having been out of Government since playing a leading role in the Liz Truss administration, Smith has Cabinet experience and is clearly seen as someone who can be relied upon.
John Whittingdale (Minister of State across both the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport) – As a former DCMS Secretary of State and Minister, Whittingdale is already familiar with the brief, making him an obvious choice to cover Julia Lopez, who is also going on maternity leave.
