As the sun rose on a midsummer morning, the Conservative Government received two massive hammer blows at the hands of the electorate. Defeat in the iconic “Red Wall” seat of Wakefield was expected. But losing to the Lib Dems in Tiverton and Honiton – which previously had a 24,000 majority – was a historically massive defeat.
Johnson’s future
Whatever the Prime Minister claims, the voters in both seats were clear: this was a referendum on his leadership. And he has failed that test.
These seats both voted heavily to leave the EU. But the Johnson magic that tipped the referendum six years ago held no sway. The link between Boris Johnson and Brexit has been fractured. The parties knew it which is why the Conservative campaigns didn’t feature the Prime Minister at all and ran as “local Conservatives”. But, as in the local elections, this did little to mitigate the damage at the ballot box.
So, with all the challenges of the last six months still in play – partygate, ethics investigations, and the cost of living crisis, the old defence that, come what may, Johnson is an electoral asset is in doubt. Many Tory backbenchers have long-held doubts about his ability to do the job of Prime Minister. Now they are looking at their own seat and beginning to wonder how safe their majority really is. With the striking rise of anti-Tory tactical voting by Labour and Lib Dem supporters, the obvious conclusion many are drawing is that the PM’s leadership may no longer be sustainable.
Fuel was added to the fire of the by-election results with the dawn resignation of Oliver Dowden, the party chair. Dowden’s letter was conspicuous for what it didn’t say as much as what it did. In five paragraphs there was not a single endorsement of the Prime Minister: he said he was “Loyal to the Conservative Party” rather than the PM. “Our supporters are distressed and disappointed by recent events, and I share their feelings.” We are left to make our own assumptions about which events. “We cannot carry on with business as usual. Somebody must take responsibility”, but in what regard?
The Tory MPs’ WhatsApp groups will be buzzing today. And the fact that grandee voices like Geoffrey Clifton Brown and Michael Howard are starting to emerge just three weeks after the confidence vote are ominous. These noises off suggest there may be difficult decisions ahead for the Prime Minister, his Cabinet and Tory MPs. Rishi Sunak has tweeted in support of the Prime Minister and the Government’s work. But his Cabinet colleagues will be looking at each other, wondering how many more defeats like this are they going to take.
Meanwhile, the PM’s response to Dowden’s letter shows he’s only got one mode: keep ploughing on, never changing and never showing contrition.
By-election analysis
Labour wins in Wakefield
In the early hours of this morning, Labour took back the Yorkshire constituency of Wakefield from the Conservative Party. Held by Labour for 87 years until the last General Election, Wakefield voted blue in 2019 as part of Boris Johnson’s gains across the red wall. Yesterday saw a swing of 12.7% back to Labour, with new MP Simon Lightwood overturning a Conservative majority of 3,358 to gain one of 4,925 on a low turnout of just 39%.
This was a tough campaign and a victory for Labour in this by-election was crucial for Keir Starmer’s leadership. For 2 the Party to win the next General Election winning seats like Wakefield will be vital, and this was a clear test for Starmer on how much he has moved the Labour Party on from the electoral lows of 2019 and on his ability to win the seats needed to form a government.
In an early morning visit to the seat, a jubilant Starmer claimed that the swing seen in Wakefield yesterday puts the Labour Party on track for a majority Government saying that after two years of turning the party around, Labour showed voters in Wakefield that the Party is “confident” and “united” with a focus on the issues that affect working people in the constituency. Striking a bullish tone, he argued that the Conservative Party know they are “out of ideas and they’re out of touch and if they had any decency, they’d get out the way for the next Labour Government.”
In the face of a Conservative Government mired in scandal over partygate and presiding over a major crisis in the cost of living, a by-election victory is the least the party would have hoped for in traditionally Labour Wakefield. However, the size of the swing to Labour surpassed many expectations and will certainly leave Labour feeling optimistic about the challenges ahead, particularly in a seat like this that had voted to leave the EU. The key test for Starmer’s Labour will be whether this result can be replicated outside of the spectacle of a by-election campaign and more widely across the country as it attempts to turn around its fortunes since the disastrous 2019 General Election and begin its journey back to power.
Liberal Democrats overturn mega majority in Tiverton and Honiton
The Liberal Democrats’ victory in Tiverton and Honiton saw the largest majority of votes overturned in by-election history, and the third loss since last year of a seat which would have previously appeared to be rock-solid for the Conservatives. Yes, the Liberal Democrats often do well at by-elections, and yes, by-election victories are often the result of voters determined to give a sitting Government a bloody nose, but the extent of the victory should worry Conservative MPs. The seismic scale of the by-election losses certainly appears to be what pushed Oliver Dowden to resign in the early hours of this morning.
Richard Foord was the perfect candidate for this rural and Brexit-minded Conservative seat, a former army officer who focused on integrity, honesty, as well as local issues such as the rural economy and struggling public services in Devon. The question now for the Liberal Democrats is to what extent does this result feasibly bring into play other seats at the next General Election.
The Party has previously targeted seats such as Dominic Raab’s slim majority in Esher and Walton, and other leafy remain voting areas on the outskirts of London, with varying success. With Brexit arguably no longer at the forefront of voters’ minds, a swathe of seats stretching out from the M25, like John Redwood’s in Wokingham and Steve Baker’s in High Wycombe, could be on the cards to turn yellow. However, Tiverton and Honiton, for all its novelty, also hints at the possibility of a Liberal Democrat resurgence in their pre-coalition stomping ground of South West England. Seats such as Yeovil, North Devon and St Ives which were previously Liberal Democrat strongholds, could now be winnable once more.
Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, has been determined to learn the lessons of 2019, concentrating the Party’s efforts targeting a core number of winnable seats, rather than wooing voters on a national scale. The problem now for the Liberal Democrats, with only 72 safer seats for the Tories in terms of swing than Tiverton and Honiton, is choosing which seats to target and which to not.
What next?
So, a really bad night for the Conservative Party and the Prime Minister in particular. Johnson's resilience has always been his greatest strength, but even he may realise time is running out. The question exercising Tory minds today is simple: having only narrowly won a vote of no confidence, and now having lost two by-elections so spectacularly, what, or more accurately who, will force Johnson from power. It's clear he himself is going nowhere. But it may no longer be up to him.
