2023 will be a challenging year for the world and Colombia will be no exception. In addition to the great economic and political challenges that will come from the international context, the country will find itself in a determining year. The first major milestone will be the definition of the National Development Plan (NDP), a roadmap that will guide the presidential term of Gustavo Petro, and that must be presented in the first days of February and debated and approved before May 5.
Although the NDP will define the broad lines of public policy with which Petro will seek to consolidate his legacy as "the first left-wing president of Colombia," the reforms that the Government considers necessary to accomplish campaign promises and implement social changes in matters of health, pensions, education and work, among other major issues, will share the stage in Congress during the first semester. Likewise, they will be simultaneous with the NDP and with legislative initiatives that come from the last legislature and that have given rise to great controversies, even within the Government bench, such as political reform or reform of the electoral code. On the other hand, during the second semester, projects will coincide with the campaigns of mayors and governors.
The strength of the Government bench will be tested. First, it will be tested ideologically when the parties that are not part of its core, such as the Conservative, the Liberal or the Unidad por la Gente (Unity for People), find themselves in need of finding balance between their own ideological program, their commitments to voters, and the left-leaning Government platform, which is committed to deeper changes. Second, it will be tested in the electoral scenario when it is necessary to reach agreements or compete openly with candidates closest to the President.
But the most important bets of the Government will not only be political. Advances in the prompt implementation of the Total Peace policy will be of the utmost importance in an environment where public order is deteriorating and threatens to return to the violence and crime prior to the Peace Agreement with the FARC. Progress will depend, to a large extent, on promptly overcoming the obstacles derived from the end-of-year announcements, both in terms of the ceasefire with the ELN and the lifting of the arrest warrants for members of the Clan del Golfo and the Conqueror Self-Defense Forces of the Sierra Nevada.
In the economic sphere, the main projections speak of a year with low growth – close to 2% – and high inflation, though it’s lower than that of 2022. The main economic challenge seems to be ensuring that the increase in minimum wage stimulates the domestic market without disproportionately affecting the country's productivity. It is noteworthy that the Government will have fresh resources derived from the tax reform, among other sources, and that, with them, it hopes to deepen social policy.
Given this dynamic context, Edelman Global Advisory’s 2023 Colombian Perspectives lays out our analysis of the economic, political and social outlook for the year with emphasis on certain social and productive sectors and implications of the NDP for the rest of President Gustavo Petro's term. We hope you find this document useful.
